Each model's ensemble median (50th percentile) for its latest available run, drawn on one axis to compare the models for this city. Pick a model below for its full ensemble and run history.
Day
Daily high (°C)
Daily low (°C)
ECMWF IFS
ECMWF AIFS
NOAA GEFS
DWD ICON-EU
ECMWF IFS
ECMWF AIFS
NOAA GEFS
DWD ICON-EU
Fri 30
9
10
12
11
6
5
6
6
Sat 31
11
10
12
12
7
6
6
7
Sun 1
9
9
11
10
5
5
4
5
Mon 2
8
8
10
8
5
4
4
5
Tue 3
10
9
10
9
4
4
3
4
Wed 4
9
8
10
–
2
3
3
–
Thu 5
8
8
9
–
2
2
3
–
Fri 6
8
6
9
–
4
2
3
–
Sat 7
8
6
8
–
3
2
3
–
Sun 8
7
6
8
–
1
2
3
–
Mon 9
7
6
–
–
2
3
–
–
The same comparison as numbers: each day's high and low of every model's ensemble median (50th percentile). A dash marks days past a model's forecast horizon.
ECMWF IFS 0.25° ensemble, model-native 3-hourly
Last updated: 2026-10-30 14:39 UTCRefreshes every hour
How the ensemble median for each time has shifted across successive model runs, colour-coded by run initialisation time. Builds up as runs are archived.
